Prices, not a team-news model
We average quoted decimal odds by outcome. We then convert those consensus prices into implied probabilities and normalise the market to remove its margin. The result is an estimated fair price, not a known true probability.
The core selection pipeline requires at least three outcome quotes by default. It does not read form, xG, team news or starting line-ups, and it does not model the draw-no-bet void state as an ordinary win.
The badge follows each leg
- Value
- Every leg clears at least 5% estimated edge. Only qualifying core categories can receive Best value today.
- Slim edge
- Every leg clears at least 1%, but at least one is below 5%. The live model tries a 3% rung before a 1% rung.
- No value claim
- A category-fit fallback, an entertainment category, or a market for which the current model cannot support the claim.
- Unpriced builder
- Same-game selections without a verified combined bookmaker quote. No combined return, probability or edge is displayed.
Price-led picks can fall back
The category name is not a qualification badge. The current model tries 5%, then 3%, then 1% per leg before its category-fit fallback. We retain that selection policy and label the resulting pick honestly. A combined edge above 5% cannot turn sub-5% legs into a strict Value qualifier.
What an edge means
If estimated fair odds are 2.00 and the offered price is 2.10, the estimated edge is 5%. It is estimated expected return per unit staked, not a five-percentage-point increase in the chance of winning.
Cross-match combined probabilities assume independence. For goalscorers, correct scores, draw-no-bet legs and same-game builders, this site withholds combined probability and edge claims that the current model cannot substantiate.
Why a pick makes the slip
Selections must fit their category's markets, price bounds, fixture window and single-bookmaker constraints. The model searches a limited shortlist rather than every possible combination. Short-odds candidates are still ranked by estimated edge within that shortlist, not by a proven minimum-risk calculation.
Know the limits
Quotes can move. Market consensus can be wrong. A short-priced accumulator can still lose the whole stake. Bookmaker coverage is not a confidence score, and these estimates are not a proven profitable track record.
How bookmaker links work
We may earn commission from bookmaker links. Link availability limits which bookmakers can supply a clickable pick; it does not make that price independently valuable.