Price-led picks
Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- Odds
- 27.00
- Legs
- 3
- Market chance
- 3.7%
- First KO
- Fri 19:30
Where the numbers look a bit generous. Don't tell the bookies.
Your set0/17
Next cardPrice-led picks. The badge tells the tier.
Last updated from odds: Algorithmic selection. How it works.
Slim edge
Fri 6 Nov to Thu 26 Nov
3 selections27.00 · bet365
First leg
Last leg kicks off · spans 21 calendar days
Market-implied estimate: 4.1%. Assumes independent match outcomes. Not a known true chance.
The selections
Market rules-
Hamburger SV v 
Borussia MonchengladbachOver 3.5 Goals
3.00Why this pick?
Over 3.5 Goals is quoted at 3.00 with bet365, against estimated fair odds of 2.883. The estimated price edge is +4.07%.
10 bookmaker outcome quotes. Snapshot 14:37 UTC.
-
Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad San SebastianOver 3.5 Goals
3.00Why this pick?
Over 3.5 Goals is quoted at 3.00 with bet365, against estimated fair odds of 2.874. The estimated price edge is +4.39%.
8 bookmaker outcome quotes. Snapshot 14:37 UTC.
-
Sparta Prague v 
AZ AlkmaarOver 3.5 Goals
3.00Why this pick?
Over 3.5 Goals is quoted at 3.00 with bet365, against estimated fair odds of 2.967. The estimated price edge is +1.12%.
8 bookmaker outcome quotes. Snapshot 14:37 UTC.
Why this acca?
All 3 legs clear the 1% estimated edge threshold at bet365, but at least one is below 5%. This is a slim-edge pick, not a strict Value qualifier.
The model ranks qualifying combinations by estimated edge. This category keeps the live 5%, 3%, then 1% per-leg ladder before a no-edge fallback.
Combined estimated edge: +9.88%. This does not upgrade the per-leg badge.
Market-implied estimate: 4.1%. Assumes independent match outcomes. Not a known true chance.
What the model does not know
- The model uses bookmaker prices, not team news, xG, form or line-ups.
- An estimated edge is not a proven advantage or a promise of profit. Check the available price before betting.
- The combined chance is a market-implied estimate and assumes the separate match outcomes are independent.
Mean decimal odds by outcome, then proportional margin removal from that consensus market.
Compare the price evidence for all legs
Decimal odds at the saved snapshot. Estimated edge = (offered odds × estimated probability − 1) × 100%.
| Selection | Offered | Est. fair | Est. edge | Quotes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV vs Borussia MonchengladbachOver 3.5 Goals | 3.00 | 2.883 | +4.07% | 10 |
| Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad San SebastianOver 3.5 Goals | 3.00 | 2.874 | +4.39% | 8 |
| Sparta Prague vs AZ AlkmaarOver 3.5 Goals | 3.00 | 2.967 | +1.12% | 8 |
Quote count is bookmaker coverage for the outcome, not a confidence score. Each outcome's decimal prices are averaged before the consensus market is normalised.
Odds snapshot: Fri 6 Nov, 14:37 UTC. Model: decimal-mean-normalised-v1. Explanation: pick-evidence-v1.