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Short-odds acca 3.122 odds acca 2.35Fan favourite acca 2.08Every leg must win. Yes, every single oneWin acca 22.52 WHAM!BTTS acca 5.52Over 2.5 goals acca 5.85Fact: it's always the last legOver 3.5 goals acca 27.00 WHAM!Goalscorer acca 2.43Price-led picks 27.00 WHAM!Odds checked every two hours, unlike our emailsLong shot acca 448.00 POW!Big odds acca 2217.78 KA-BOOM!Correct score acca 30.25 WHAM!No tipster in a Lambo here, just mathsToday's football acca 6.58Weekend acca 19.62Midweek acca 10.97Stake small, cheer loudBet builder of the day 2.97Bet builder tips 38.26 WHAM!
No. 07/17Goals

Over 3.5 goals

Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Odds
27.00
Legs
3
Market chance
3.7%
First KO
Fri 19:30

For people who think 2-1 is a bit dull.

Four goals or more in every match.

Last updated from odds: Algorithmic selection. How it works.

Slim edge

Fri 6 Nov to Thu 26 Nov

3 selections
Why these picks?

27.00 · bet365

First leg

Last leg kicks off · spans 21 calendar days

Market-implied estimate: 4.1%. Assumes independent match outcomes. Not a known true chance.

The selections

Market rules
  1. Bundesliga

    Hamburger SV v Borussia Monchengladbach

    Over 3.5 Goals

    3.00
    Why this pick?

    Over 3.5 Goals is quoted at 3.00 with bet365, against estimated fair odds of 2.883. The estimated price edge is +4.07%.

    10 bookmaker outcome quotes. Snapshot 14:37 UTC.

  2. UEFA Europa League

    Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad San Sebastian

    Over 3.5 Goals

    3.00
    Why this pick?

    Over 3.5 Goals is quoted at 3.00 with bet365, against estimated fair odds of 2.874. The estimated price edge is +4.39%.

    8 bookmaker outcome quotes. Snapshot 14:37 UTC.

  3. UEFA Europa League

    Sparta Prague v AZ Alkmaar

    Over 3.5 Goals

    3.00
    Why this pick?

    Over 3.5 Goals is quoted at 3.00 with bet365, against estimated fair odds of 2.967. The estimated price edge is +1.12%.

    8 bookmaker outcome quotes. Snapshot 14:37 UTC.

Why this acca?

All 3 legs clear the 1% estimated edge threshold at bet365, but at least one is below 5%. This is a slim-edge pick, not a strict Value qualifier.

Every match needs four or more goals. The model ranks qualifying combinations by estimated edge.

Combined estimated edge: +9.88%. This does not upgrade the per-leg badge.

Market-implied estimate: 4.1%. Assumes independent match outcomes. Not a known true chance.

What the model does not know
  • The model uses bookmaker prices, not team news, xG, form or line-ups.
  • An estimated edge is not a proven advantage or a promise of profit. Check the available price before betting.
  • The combined chance is a market-implied estimate and assumes the separate match outcomes are independent.

Mean decimal odds by outcome, then proportional margin removal from that consensus market.

Compare the price evidence for all legs

Decimal odds at the saved snapshot. Estimated edge = (offered odds × estimated probability − 1) × 100%.

SelectionOfferedEst. fairEst. edgeQuotes
Hamburger SV vs Borussia MonchengladbachOver 3.5 Goals3.002.883+4.07%10
Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad San SebastianOver 3.5 Goals3.002.874+4.39%8
Sparta Prague vs AZ AlkmaarOver 3.5 Goals3.002.967+1.12%8

Quote count is bookmaker coverage for the outcome, not a confidence score. Each outcome's decimal prices are averaged before the consensus market is normalised.

Odds snapshot: Fri 6 Nov, 14:37 UTC. Model: decimal-mean-normalised-v1. Explanation: pick-evidence-v1.

Goals

Both teams to score tipsOver 2.5 goals tipsAnytime scorers tipsAll football accumulator tips

Leagues in this slip

Bundesliga accumulators

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